Worldwide, especially in so-called developed or industrial nations, normal population growth has become depressed, registering below what’s called the “replacement rate,” so what does this mean that human beings no longer want to reproduce?
Hi, I’m Rex Rogers and this is episode #247 of Discerning What Is Best, a podcast applying unchanging biblical principles in a rapidly changing world, and a Christian worldview to current issues and everyday life.
Population decline is no longer a future projection but a present reality. The West, if not the world, is well into a shrinking and aging population trend.
“American fertility has precipitously dived to 1.6. The foreign-born now represent 15% of the American resident population, the highest in both actual numbers (50 million) and percentages in history.”
The fertility rate refers to the average number of children born to a woman over her reproductive lifetime (typically between the ages of 15 and 49). Meanwhile, the replacement rate is the fertility rate at which each generation exactly replaces itself without any net population change, i.e., immigration. In most industrialized countries, the replacement rate is generally considered to be around 2.1 children per woman.
Fertility rates have fallen below replacement level in most developed countries and in many developing ones as well. South Korea has the world’s lowest fertility rate at 1.08. China’s fertility rate is estimated to have touched a record low of 1.09. Singapore’s birth rate is at a record low. 1 in 10 are now 80 or older as country’s birth rate continues to fall in Japan. The fertility rate in Canada is only 1.48. In the U.K., 1.75. Europe's fertility rate has been stuck around 1.5 births per woman for the past decade, far short of the 2.1 needed to maintain population levels.
About 103 out of 237 countries and territories in the world have total fertility rates above the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman in 2025 estimates. The leading countries are mostly in Africa and the Middle East, with a few like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan in south or central Asia. Most of the world’s wealthier, industrialized nations have fertility rates below 2.1, meaning populations are shrinking with each passing year.
This trend is not just happenstance, nor is it that people in the West have forgotten how to make babies. It’s happening because of changing values and moral choices.
Why is the fertility rate declining? Later marriage and delayed childbearing, career prioritization, city life favoring smaller families because children shift from being economic contributors (on farms) to economic dependents, access to contraception – and abortion. I am not equating use of contraception with abortion, just noting these are two different reasons why fertility rates are dropping.
Around 90% of countries allow abortion in at least one circumstance beyond lifesaving (such as rape, health reasons, or socioeconomic factors). Only a small minority of countries prohibit abortion altogether, even in extreme cases. Following the Dobbs decision, June 2022, abortion remains legal in the United States, but there is no longer a nationwide constitutional right to abortion. Several states have banned abortion nearly entirely or have strict limits where abortion is prohibited except in rare circumstances (e.g., to save the pregnant person’s life).
States with such bans include Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and more. Since Roe v. Wade in 1973, most estimates center around 64 – 65 million total abortions over that period. Much of the world now promotes this culture of death.
Why does declining population matter? This shift is driven by common forces: urbanization, higher education levels, women’s workforce participation, rising living costs, delayed marriage, and cultural changes that prioritize individual fulfillment over large families.
While these trends often reflect what some consider social progress, their cumulative demographic effect is profound. Fewer young people are entering the labor force just as the number of retirees grows rapidly, placing immense strain on pension systems, healthcare infrastructure, and public finances.
Economic growth in modern economies depends heavily on a stable or growing workforce. Persistent population decline threatens productivity, innovation, and the ability to sustain global economic leadership. Aging societies may also become more risk-averse, less entrepreneurial, and slower to adapt to technological or geopolitical change.
In the U.S. and Europe, mass immigration has partially offset these trends, but mass immigration along with the faulty and failed philosophies of multiculturalism and cultural relativism have created explosive tinder boxes. Many immigrants today do not share the host culture’s worldview, do not embrace the same religious values, do not wish to assimilate, and bring attitudes inclined toward entitlement.
This is dramatically different from most immigrants in the 19th and early 20th Century who arrived through Ellis Island eager to become and be Americans, who brought strong work ethics and a desire to learn the language and assimilate, and who also brought aspirations for freedom and achievement. So today, given the foolish open borders authorized by the Biden Administration, we are seeing developing in the U.S balkanized nations within nations yielding social, financial, and political problems.
From a Judeo-Christian, but also broader faith-based perspective, declining fertility is often interpreted not only in economic or social terms but as a spiritual and moral issue, including:
Rejection of “be fruitful and multiply,” childbearing no longer viewed as a vocation or blessing, but as a burden or lifestyle option, rise of secularism and loss of God-centered purpose, and life oriented toward self-fulfillment rather than stewardship and legacy, and a contraceptive mentality and separation of sex from procreation. Fertility is treated as a problem to be controlled rather than a gift to be received. We are immersed in cultural confusion about gender, motherhood, and fatherhood, weakening the stable family structure traditionally seen as the proper context for raising children.
Biblical language “children are a heritage from the Lord” (Ps. 127) is often replaced by cost-benefit thinking. Children are seen as obstacles to freedom rather than signs of hope and continuity.
Fear, anxiety, re the future, global crises, is replacing trust in providence. Some religious voices note a loss of hope in the future. If people no longer believe in building for coming generations, they invest less in having them. When societies become dominated by fear, comfort-seeking, or radical individualism, they often lose the willingness to sacrifice for the next generation.
From a Christian biblical perspective, population decline is not merely a demographic trend but a reflection of deeper spiritual, cultural, and moral realities. Scripture consistently presents human life as a blessing from God, not a burden to be minimized. Throughout the Bible, children are described as gifts from the Lord:
“Behold, children are a heritage from the Lord, the fruit of the womb a reward” (Ps. 127:3).
From the beginning, God’s command to humanity (Gen. 1:28) linked fruitfulness with stewardship, purpose, and hope for the future. This establishes a biblical vision in which life, family, and generational continuity are central to God’s design.
Biblically, population decline can also be understood as a consequence of moral and spiritual disorientation. The Old Testament prophets frequently linked societal weakness and decline to a turning away from God’s order (Deut. 28). When marriage is devalued, sexual relationships are detached from covenant and responsibility, and family stability erodes, demographic consequences naturally follow.
At the same time, Christianity does not measure human worth by numbers alone. Faithfulness, not sheer growth, is the ultimate standard. The New Testament emphasizes spiritual multiplication—making disciples of all nations (Matt. 28:19)—alongside physical fruitfulness.
By the way, we must not judge people who in God’s providence do not to have children. There are many legitimate reasons a couple may not have children. This is between them and the Lord. While couples may choose not to have children selfishly or for some of the morally questionable reasons mentioned above, not having children is not ipso facto a sin.
Yet spiritual vitality and openness to life are often closely connected. From a Christian perspective, responding to population decline involves more than policy solutions. It calls for cultural renewal rooted in faith, hope, and love: honoring marriage, supporting families, caring for children, and recovering confidence that the future belongs to God. Where such renewal takes place, openness to life can once again flourish.
Well, we’ll see you again soon. This podcast is about Discerning What Is Best.
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And remember, it is for freedom that Christ has set us free. Stand firm.
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